The global maritime industry faces a set of unprecedented challenges that are redefining trade routes, operational costs, and long-term logistics strategies. MundoMarítimo attended the online seminar "Navigating Stormy Seas: Current Trends and What to Expect in the Future," where renowned maritime industry analyst Lars Jensen, logistics specialist Bjorn Vang Jensen, and Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen discussed the main trends and challenges shaping the future of the sector.

Ongoing Crisis in the Red Sea and Suez Canal

The current situation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal was one of the first topics discussed. Since December, major shipping lines have avoided this route, diverting around Africa due to ongoing attacks by the Houthis. Lars Jensen noted that the situation remains unchanged, with no short-term solution in sight. "The reality is that this cannot be resolved militarily. We are in this for the long haul; if it is to be resolved, it will be politically," he stated, emphasizing the complexity of a conflict that seems to be extending indefinitely.

Bjorn Vang Jensen agreed that there is no viable military solution. In his view, the situation will continue to affect supply chains over the next year. "I think we are well on our way to the first quarter of 2025 before a permanent solution is found," he mentioned, highlighting how supply chains have already adapted to this new normal.

Unpredictability, the Differentiating Factor

The panelists also compared the current crisis to previous disruptive events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Suez Canal blockage after the "Ever Given" grounding. However, the key difference lies in the unpredictability of when this crisis will end. "One of the key elements of this disruption is the unpredictability of when it will end, and that is something we did not even see during COVID-19," explained Lars Jensen. This lack of certainty is forcing shipping lines to prepare for a prolonged scenario, which could mean permanent changes to routes and logistics networks.

Rolf Habben Jansen, meanwhile, emphasized that although costs have increased and the situation remains unstable, supply chains have shown a remarkable ability to adjust. "Today, most supply chains have adapted, and I think we will be able to carry a bit more cargo next year, even if the Red Sea remains closed," he expressed, suggesting that the industry has learned to handle uncertainty better than in previous crises.

Rising Capacity and Costs

The rise in operating costs was another central theme. Habben Jansen detailed how the increase in charter rates, fuel costs, and the need for more containers are putting pressure on the industry. "Today, we are sailing with an equipment fleet that is about 25% larger than under normal circumstances, and that is purely due to the length of shipping, which has increased by 25%," he noted.

Lars Jensen added that the need to renew the fleet and meet decarbonization targets is also driving new vessel orders. "Many of the ships being ordered now are for deliveries in 2027 and 2028. A fleet replacement is necessary, especially for older vessels that should have been scrapped five years ago," he commented, emphasizing the need for a long-term approach to capacity planning.

Potential Strikes in the U.S. and Canada

The discussion also covered the potential impacts of labor strikes on the U.S. East Coast (USEC) and in Canada, with particular concern about how they could disrupt key port operations. Bjorn Vang Jensen warned of the severe repercussions a strike on the USEC could have on global supply chains, comparing it to the impact of the "Ever Given." "The East Coast has the potential to become a new 'Ever Given' multiplied by ten in terms of impact," he noted, stressing the need for political intervention to avoid a prolonged crisis.

Habben Jansen, for his part, expressed cautious optimism, hoping that any strike would not last too long, but warned of the difficulties in returning to normal after a significant disruption. "In many cases, you will have no choice but to wait and hope that, with a seven, ten, or fourteen-day delay, you can return to normal," he said.

New Alliances and Transport Networks

Another highlighted topic was the future of strategic alliances between shipping lines, especially with the new Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. Lars Jensen projected that this model could redefine transport networks, focusing on larger hubs and more frequent transshipments. "If Hapag and Maersk manage to execute operationally, I believe this will set the tone for other alliances to adjust their networks in the coming years," he asserted.

Bjorn Vang Jensen supported this view, arguing that although cargo owners do not like transshipment, they might accept the change if it improves punctuality and reduces inventory costs. "If we can reduce inventory by three to seven days, that easily justifies paying a premium," he commented.

Impact on Latin America and the United States

Finally, the specific impact of these trends on routes to Latin America and the United States was addressed. Habben Jansen clarified that the main routes to Latin America would not change significantly with the new Gemini Cooperation, although there would be improvements in connectivity and efficiency thanks to transshipment networks in Asia and Europe.

The seminar concluded by emphasizing the need for the maritime industry to adapt to an increasingly volatile and unpredictable environment. Long-term planning, resilience to disruptions, and efficiency in transport networks will be crucial to overcoming current and future challenges. The ability to adapt to this new reality will determine the success of shipping lines in the coming years as they navigate these increasingly stormy seas.

By MundoMaritimo