World Ports Conference 2021: trade Outlook, container shipping & COVID-19

In ‘normal’ circumstances, we all would have met in Antwerp, Belgium, the week of June 21-25 to witness the 2021 version of the International Association of Ports and Harbors IAPH World Port Conference. Instead, COVID-19 forced the hundreds of attendees to log in from the comfort and safety of their homes -and even offices- complying with the required social distancing these pandemic times call for. However distant, all the participants gathered virtually to discuss the main issues affecting the ports industry and we wanted to take a further look into the most relevant insights provided by the world-class experts that shared with the world this past week.

Global Trade Outlook

Presented and moderated by Patrick Verhoeven, International Association of Ports and Harbors, Managing Director, and overall host of the event, Turloch Mooney, IHS Markit, Associate Director, Maritime & Trade, Nariman Behravesh, IHS Markit, Senior Economic Adviser and Former Chief Economist and Theo Notteboom, Ghent University / Shanghai Maritime University / University of Antwerp, Professor, analyzed the current status of the industry and delivered their views on the Global Trade Outlook, during one of the opening sessions of the event. “We’ve seen a surge of growth and inflation, but that is likely to peak sometime next year and should fade by 2023,” says Behravesh, who adds that “fiscal stimulus and strong vaccination rollout has helped economies to recover. The US and China stand out, Europe is having some trouble and emerging markets could take longer, but in general there will be a return to pre-COVID growth trends by 2023.” Behravesh points out that there will be some bumps along the way on the road to recovery, such as increased interest rates and labor shortages (in some markets), but it should all fade by end 2022-early 2023. “The global economy was ill prepared for the global pandemic and the boom afterwards, but the disruptions we’re seeing in supply chain should be temporary. We expect to see a complete global recovery in 2 years, the US is basically recovered, as well as China. But it will take the rest of the world to recover the output,” while he highlights that it’s still “too early to assess the long-term damages or impacts of the pandemic.”

“We have been seeing levels of disruption since the last quarter of 2020 which have been quite severe indeed and a lot of that has been focused on the ports,” says Turloch Mooney, referring to disruption, also pointing out that what starts in one port -as was the case with the US West Coast ports- can spread to other locations and cause a more broad effect, as well as the Suez Canal blockage: “there’s only one Suez Canal and it is only one route, so there’s always a risk of disruption like this. There is some lack of resilience, and it results in delays in the best of times, and if something out of the ordinary strikes -like the pandemic- those weaknesses are exposed.” “Ports could benefit from a more flexible planning of their activities by being ready for unannounced vessel arrivals, cancellations, and late arrivals. We’re seeing a lot of last minute changes to schedules and not adapting to that is becoming very costly,” adds Notteboom.

Evolution of container shipping & logistics

Two leading executives of the port and liner industry met with Verhoeven to discuss “The essential evolution of container shipping & logistics” during the third day of presentations and webinars. Jacques Vandermeiren, CEO Port of Antwerp and Soren Toft, CEO Mediterranean Shipping Co., talked about the challenges the container shipping industry faces currently. How resilient is the supply chain? asked Verhoeven. “I think the industry has really proven its worth during COVID, but the last 6-9 months have been very tough. The supply chain has been under enormous pressure and there’s a number of factors contributing to it. We [liners] are part of the problem, but not the source of the problem. Warehouses are full, there’s a lack of truck drivers… there are a lot of pieces in the supply chain that are impacting. We are impacted by the weakest link in the chain,” says the MSC executive, who highlights the significant investments made to meet demand of the customers. “From a service reliability point of view, we must do better,” says Toft. “Digital opens new pathways, and decarbonization is a challenge we have to overcome,” adds Toft, when asked about the most pressing issues. 

“For decarbonization we need a coalition of ports, to determine which kind of infrastructure to build and how to integrate. We are discussing this daily,” says Vandermeiren, who adds that building infrastructure takes longer than the carriers’ growth. “Everything is changing, and we are only part of the solution,” the Port of Antwerp CEO highlights. “We need coalitions and collective brain power to solve the decarbonization issue, because no one company can do it alone,” says Toft.

What crisis next: lessons from COVID-19

Getting over COVID-19 requires individual and collective efforts, and the lessons and conclusions from the experience. The “What crisis next? Lessons Learned from COVID-19” panel was attended by Sabrina Chao, BIMCO President, Stephen Cotton, ITF General Secretary, Subramaniam Karuppiah, IAPH / Port Klang Authority, President-Elect/Vice-President SE Asia and Oceania / General Manager and moderated by Ines Nastali, IHS Markit Editor, Ports & Harbors magazine, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit. “Collaboration is key,” says Karuppiah, to which Chao from BIMCO added “we are talking to other organizations and industries and see how they are dealing with the crisis and learn from them, what we can learn from each other,” while Cotton adds that “if we don’t solve the challenges of COVID globally we’re going to be constantly stomping out fires.”

The seafarer crisis is another learning opportunity the pandemic has made visible. “The seafarers are the people that move the ships, yet they are invisible,” says Cotton from ITF, who detailed measures on improving safety and health for seafarers and dock workers, including rollout of COVID-19 vaccination for seaworkers. “87% of all seafarers are still waiting for their vaccines, and for us this is the real challenge, to get the governments to understand that we need to move this forwards,” adds the ITF General Secretary.

By MundoMaritimo